Black Swans in our Lives

What’s the possibility of a new book about the nature of improbability? It’s 100 per cent! The book, “The Black Swan, the impact of the highly improbable” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb takes the reader on an entertaining and mind-expanding trip of reasoning.

For thousands of years, it was assumed by those in the “known world” that all swans were white. It wasn’t until the discovery of Australia, in the early 1600s, that black swans became a reality, thereby upsetting our expectations of the color of swans.

Taleb argues that the human being has become adept at locating order in randomness, finding patterns in chance occurrences, and making predictions based on these patterns. While this human behavior has served us well and has made us more comfortable in our surroundings, danger lurks with each assumption.

Taleb, a financial analyst and investor, writes that the awareness of unpredictability is a most undervalued human sense. He cites a Scottish economist, G.L.S. Shackle, who wrote that “…capitalism is driven by the entrepreneur’s ability to imagine a radically different future.” Only on Wall Street do people exercise--to a limited degree-- an awareness of the impact of unlikely events. But how many sightings of black swans has Wall Street missed and how many predicted consequences have been shattered because of a black swan variant?

Living a life of routine is comforting. Most don’t want to endure disquieting experiences such as moving, changing jobs, or separating from unhealthy relationships. We seek to close off options, whether by choice or through our subconscious. An example is our purchasing preferences. We are likely to buy certain products simply because they are familiar and therefore comforting. That’s why branding and advertising is so influential on consumers. Years ago, a motel chain advertised that there would be no surprises when you travelled if you stayed in their motels each night of your journey. That’s what everyone wants, whether spending a few nights on the road, or making a journey through life—no surprises.

Related to our human tendency to make quick assumptions based on previous experiences, our primitive “fight or flight” reaction has evolved for our own self-preservation. But this response makes us less willing to accommodate to a new paradigm or abandon a failed approach. Taleb uses the second World Trade Center attack as an example of how our leaders followed an old paradigm in response to this outrage. One can question whether that response has served our national security.

On the topic of happiness, the author illustrates how humans believe that numerous positive events occurring in sequence indicates happiness. Reacting from within their comfort zone, these small but repeated successes are interpreted as satisfying, therefore pleasant. The “big wins” are not risked as we too easily settle for white swans, and the life-changing black swans are not encouraged to make their appearances.

When a black swan is seen, people over-react by following previously learned behaviors. Concerning 9/11 and other big-splash events, Taleb argues that these black swans make us overly fearful of terroristic possibilities, of aberrant school shootings, and just recently, bridge collapses.

This 300-page book is well worth the time to read. It’s a work that needs pondering and contemplation. It’s bound to stimulate great conversation at the dining table and at social gatherings.